Thursday, January 19, 2017

Nero didn't deny that Rome was burning

As our modern Nero (or worse, Gaius Julius) saunters from his election loss and public repudiation by the American people to the White House, the globe burns.

No surprise there, just as there will be no surprise when a tiny decline in 2017 brings concern-trolling by lukewarmists and cherrypicking by denialists.

So I fall back to my own private refuge, winning climate bets. We've completed Year 2 of the five-year measuring point for my 2007-2017 bets with David Evans. Details of the over-complicated bets are here for those who care, but essentially it's separate bets over whether warming will go at .15C or .1C per decade over 10, 15, and 20 years, with bets voiding if results are in a gray zone. Bets are five-year averages, using GISS data.

To get out of the gray zones and win both bets, the planet needs to suffer at a warming rate of .18C/decade. The 2005-2009 five year average above the GISS arbitrary baseline was .63C, so I win both bets if 2015-2019 is .81C or higher. In 2015 it was .87, and 2016 it was .99.

So, my rough calculations say to win both bets through 2019, the next 3 years need to average .73C or higher. That used to be a high temperature, but not compared to the last 3 years. We've been out of El Nino for a while but temps are still far above .73. Last year I thought I was more likely to void the warmest bet than win it, now I think the reverse is true.

To void but not lose the warmest bet, the next 3 years need to be .65C or higher, a GISS annual temperature never exceeded before 2000, but only an average temp since then (and way below average for recent years). To avoid losing the less-warming bet, temps need to be .58C or higher - significantly colder than the 2005-2009 baseline for bets where even my opponent acknowledged some warmth was likely.

I am going to win the slow-warming bet, and I'm likely to win the moderate-warming bet. In the 15 and 20 year periods ahead, signal will dominate noise even more than now. Especially with Nero/Gaius Julius ignoring what's happening.

24 comments:

Russell Seitz said...

Give the man a cigar for para 1's credible Network imitation

Fernando Leanme said...

You are gonna lose because the GISS data will soon be homogenized with Moscow's Russian State Climate Bureau (России Государственное бюро климата) data sets, which show a warming rate of 0.05 degrees K per decade.

Russell Seitz said...

Fernando's data set is in perfect agreement with the Ministry of Medium Dezinformatsia's Five Milidegree Five Year Plan

Putinism equals editorial workers soviets plus complete electrocution of the commentariat.

Bernard J. said...

A question.

Could Trump be impeached for lying to the citizens of the USA, and causing government agencies to lie to the citizens of the USA, about the science of human-caused global warming?

Fernando Leanme said...

Bernad, Trump could be impeached for spitting on the sidewalk if the House of Representatives desires it. However I seriously doubt a Repiblican controlled house would consider your proposal. Are you French?

Bernard J. said...

Fernando, I am well aware that the decision to impeach is largely at the whim of the House. My question was getting at whether Trump's move to remove climate change and environmental protection as issues that require government response would concern sufficient people, not only amongst the Democrats but within the subcategory of enlightened Republicans, that they would transcend party lines and do something to repair the damage that Trump's actions will otherwise rapidly make irreparable.

I'm really trying to get to the degree of intregrity that may remain in the United State's government's Houses.

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

I'm really trying to get to the degree of intregrity that may remain in the United State's government's Houses.

You've got to be kidding, right? I think you're most probably going to have to wait until after World War III plays out, and the subsequent Nuremberg trials in Geneva, Switzerland.

Bernard J. said...

TLE, I admit to a personal pessimism about the likelihood of Republican integrity beyond their own personal political interests, but as I am not especially familiar with most of the Republican members I am curious about a State-side view on whether there would be sufficent individuals who might cross the floor for the sake of the future of their country and the planet.

I guess that your response is one for for the side of "nay"... :-(

Kevin O'Neill said...

Bernard writes: "...whether there would be sufficient individuals who might cross the floor for the sake of the future of their country and the planet...."

I'm sorry B., but the answer to that is sadly, ROFLMAO.

No, none, nada, zip,zilch, zero, Slim and None and Slim has left town. Take your least favorite lying, cheating, stealing person you know. Multiply by 100. Now you have the average integrity of GOP office holders at the state and national level. It has been a top-down phenomena. It hasn't spread to every local office yet - but that's being worked on.

E. Swanson said...

Long Char (and K O'N) If Sir Plump pushes things all the way to WW III, we will finally learn whether the Nuclear Winter hypothesis is correct. If the predictions turn out to be true, there won't be any Nuremberg trials, since there won't be any civilized governments left to conduct them. But, I suspect that you know that...

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

Yes Eric, I am familiar with the spectrum of human disaster and catastrophe scenarios, and I've written a bit on that subject. It's always hard do say what might happen with fascists seize power in a democracy. And yes, BJ, I have stepped up to the plate at least in Wisconsin with my own nutty Progressive Manifesto and a fake National Progressive Party of science and of one, me. If you know anyone who has a few extra million I can make that a reality for you, as I don't think the Democrats are either open to or able to be reformed substantively. It will take ... ahem ... millions to rise up and demand change. No ... wait. Well, 80,000 or so Lutherans could do it.

Bernard J. said...

Kevin O'Neill.

Sad face then...

Susan Anderson said...

Kevin O'Neill (and anyone else), do pick yourself up a copy of Jane Mayer's Dark Money. It's not top down, government that is, it's bottom up. Far too many states, cities and towns are infested by the looting party, including their court systems and local authorities. But it has been managed and near the center of the web are the Koch billionaire network, now often hidden by the likes of Donor's Trust, and their ilk (Mercers, independents like Adelson, Rove, and all). Bearing in mind that the Tea Party was not grass roots in the beginning, but has been a useful idiot that has gained momentum. Local elections are much easier to buy, but the cancer has metastasized.

We're being played by our toys etc. (mobile devices, social media) which are part of how we have become a wholly owned subsidiary of marketing. Free isn't free, and infotainment and cheap stuff have hidden costs. Yes, lots of people use them for good, and sports etc. are fun and part of life. But for most people, cheap energy is the most important thing, and destroying the planet is just dandy as long as they don't suffer from it too much in the short term.

Yes, I rant. Sorry ...

I do hope that at some point it will become common to say that the alternative to facts is fiction and lies. Allowing "alternative facts" to become common currency is a lie in itself.

Kevin O'Neill said...

Susan - I think that was pretty much my point; it was not a grass roots operation that eventually reached the national level -- it was an orchestrated effort that quickly captured the national level and then worked its way down.

Unfortunately the forces of darkness were/are very good at it. I live in Wisconsin - there's hardly a better example of Koch/ALEC capture of the state political system in the country. Brownback in Kansas and Walker in Wisconsin have both given ALEC everything they could possibly have asked for. The respective economic consequences for their states have been what anyone with half a brain would have predicted. That of course rules out Republicans who still can't figure out why Kansas and Wisconsin lag almost all of the rest of the country in economic performance since Walker and Brownback took office.

At the local level you may still find GOP officeholders that are sane because the tentacles of the Koch's et al haven't yet reached into their local domain, but more and more even the smallest of political races are subject to the same 'have you drunk the kool-aid, yet?' litmus tests for GOP candidates.

Susan Anderson said...

Ah Kevin, indeed you appear to have more immediate rather than academic knowledge. What a tragedy it all is. I try not to be doomerist, but the potential for ending civilization is large (geoengineering meanwhile, no doubt, as nobody wants to give up their mod cons if magic thinking can fix it). I'm lucky to live in Boston and spend time in Princeton, two more liberal bastions it might be hard to find, except perhaps the left coast, though they're wedded to Bernie et al. even if it kills us all.

If only Republicans had not become so wedded to staying in power than the piper payer sets the tune. One might think there would be a half dozen moral ones left (Collins, Lindsay Graham? ...)

Bernard J. said...

A question: are conversatives more corrupt/corruptible than progressive people...?

cRR Kampen said...

Wiser not to bet on that, Bernard J.
Human species.

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

Susan Collins' morals? Sure, if you kike the morality of Jeff Sessions.

https://www.thenation.com/article/susan-collins-just-disgraced-herself-at-jeff-sessionss-confirmation-hearing/

Enlighten yourself, Susan. Susan Collins is a Republican.

They have no morals. What they call morals is fascism.

Russell Seitz said...

"If Sir Plump pushes things all the way to WW III, we will finally learn whether the Nuclear Winter hypothesis is correct."

The Gulf War went a long way towards falsifying it - Sagan went on Nightline and told Ted Koppel millions would perish of famine when soot from the Kuwait oil fires went stratopsheric and collapsed the Asian monsoon.

It didn't happen.

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

Ok, Russell, I guess that means we're all go for the big red button!

Duck and cover!

Bernard J. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bernard J. said...

"The Gulf War went a long way towards falsifying it ..."

For very small values of "long"...

Russell, I suspect that soot from the Gulf fires would be embarrassingly insignificant compared with the dust, debris, aerosols and and sundry atmospheric pollution raised by several thousand nukes being detonated.

As it stands I think a nuclear winter is still a plausible hypothesis that humanity is better off not testing.

Susan Anderson said...

Oh for heaven's (hell's, actually) sake. Collins pro Sessions? That's another one to bite the dust. (Quite St. Patrick innit!) He and Pence with their fake Christianity, ugh.

Susan Anderson said...

Apologies to and praise for Russell who appears to be working on one of the better geoengineering options, fwiw (not that I am any sort of judge). Russell Seitz - Bright Water: Hydrosols, Water Conservation and Climate Change
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/4737323/Seitz_BrightWater.pdf